28 October 2008


Top 5 Reasons Why McCain will Win Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania has become one of the most hotly contested states in the country this year in both the primaries and Presidential election and the seemingly invincible blue state is in serious jeopardy of swinging McCain this year. Pennsylvania is a critical state holding over 20 electoral votes and a state in which over 90 percent of the counties vote red. Here's the top 5 Reasons why McCain will Win Pennsylvania.

1. Obama and Polls don't Mix:
Obama has a history of underachieving compared to poll numbers for the states in which held primary elections rather than caucuses. Some people call this the Bradley Effect, while others point to the fact that many of the pollsters (especially those who make up the Real Clear Politics average) tend to lean heavily liberal. Further skewering their polls is the influx of ACORN aided and fraudulent registrations in the state which has made pollsters alter their weightings of respondents choices.

Obama was shelled in the moderate, blue collar state against Clinton in the primary and many view him as out of touch with the state's Democrat population. Further, one can look no further than his 10 percent lead over Clinton in New Hampshire that evaporated in less than 24 hours yielding to a pounding defeat. If Obama is not up by at least 12 percent the day prior to election, Pennsylvania won't be assured. Further, this year, Ralph Nader is actually on the ballot (was not in 2004 when Kerry barely won the state) and is projected to take 1-3 percent from Obama.

2. Obama couldn't Fill the Mellon Arena:
Yesterday, in a rally in Pittsburgh, PA, Obama whose campaign touts the record number of rally attendees drew only 14,000 people at the Mellon Arena. The problem is, the Igloo holds over 17,000+ easily with room to spare for standing room and sells out nightly for Pittsburgh Penguins games. Allegheny County, along with Philadelphia, are traditionally the only two strongholds the Democrats have in the state, and poor showings in attendance don't bode well for the junior Senator.

3. Palin Overfilled the Cambria County War Memorial:
Sarah Palin's rally in Johnstown, PA, (Population under 30,000) a much smaller city, in Cambria county (3 to 1 Democrat registration) had nearly 8,000 people show up to fill a 4,035 seat arena. The heavily controlled Democrat city, under some suspicion, had even tried turning some people away early before an even larger crowd showed up.

4. "Western PA is Racist" and "People from PA are Bitter and Cling to Guns and Religion":
Two quotes that may go down in infamy. First on the hit parade was Gov. Ed Rendell, Democrat from Philadelphia. Rendell, and avid Clinton supporter who some believed may have even been a potential running mate for Clinton had she won, first made comments during the primary that he believed it would be very hard for Obama to win Pennsylvania because many citizens weren't prepared to vote for a black candidate. Further, Rendell who has much clout in the backroom political process of Pennsylvania has been alienated by the Obama camp and hasn't been as enthusiastic about getting out the vote in Pennsylvania for the Democrat ticket as he would of had Clinton won PA. Let's not forget the PUMA issue in PA as well. It's hard to believe that issue would be completely swept off the table either since PA was solid Obama country.

Next, was Obama's quote during a speech in San Francisco that the "People of Pennsylvania are bitter and cling to their guns and religion." Although he has denied he made the statement or spinned it many times, his voice is has been played over and over again saying it. Pennsylvania does have a strong contingent of Pro-Second Amendment Democrats as well as Christian Democrats, and such comments are still leaving a bad taste in the mouth of many residents.

Most recently was Rep. John Murtha's (D) comments that "There's no question that the people of Western Pennsylvania (his own constituents) are racist." Murtha later restated his argument that he didn't mean they were racist, just that they were "backwards, ignorant and rednecks." Murtha, a career politician, is embroiled in a race against retired Army Lieutenant Colonel and veteran William Russell. Russell who was thought to be lucky when he entered to race to gather 20 percent of the votes is now up in some polls by as much as 10-15 percent over Murtha. Adding fuel to the fire is Murtha's attacks on the US Military calling for the heads of Marines accused and acquitted of war crimes, and yet still refuses to apologize. His battle in key Western PA counties will lead many Democrats to not vote straight party line which may have many voters taking a more scrupulous look at each candidate in each election, leading to a loss of an additional 1 to 2 percent for Obama.

5. Pennsylvania's Military Presence:
On the heels of Obama's statements that he wants to cut the defense budget by over 25 percent during a time of war, Pennsylvania's heavy military presence may play a deciding factor. The state has one of the largest Air and Army Guard divisions in the country, with over 20,000 in its ranks combined. While the state is heavily registered Democrat, it is very strong on national defense issues and Obama's threats to gut the DOD will hit close to home with many family's who have members of the military serving in harms way. Despite Obama's promises to ensure defeat out of the sure hands of victory in Iraq, his ability to complete a full retreat is planless and unexecutable. Any cuts in funding to the military will occur with service members still in harms way, and that is dangerous. (Photo Courtesy of Topcover)

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